A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
